29 Jun 2016 09:57:39
i really hope I am wrong about this and I am overthinking it, but as the civil war in the PLP steps up, I have a gut feeling that any measures to get corbyn to step down will be used and I mean any measures .
bribing won't work or he would have been bought off a long time ago,
threatening is not working or he would have stood down this week.
that leaves either rigging the members vote, which is a possibility even thou his membership is even higher than it was .
or the last resort he will have an accident or worse .
people might think franky has lost the plot but this moment in time is as huge as it gets.
if corbyn gets in power again you will see new rules for members to get shut of the career politicians which is going to be massive.
like kim mentioned I can see a split of the lab party, its gone to far either way to heal and its reported that corbyn is going to go for blair once chilcot is public and hence I think the plp have made their move.
as you may know there is murmurs about the eu being let in thru the backdoor, which will split the tory party and its voters, also blairites mps who have resigned are all behind this if it is proposed, corbyn has gone on record that the vote should be democratically upheld .
one thing to note, people may think I see corbyn in rose tinted classes, honestly it was never about corbyn, personally he is not a great talker when he reads his notes on PMQs even thou he has got better, it was never about him getting elected in two or 3 years time, it was is happening now, some might call it splitting the party I see it as reshaping it, and that is why I have this uneasy feeling in the next weeks or months during the election if it goes ahead.
like I said I hope I am overthinking this .
29 Jun 2016 10:44:09
Corbyn isn't a bad person. He's been badly advised by Seamus Milne, like at the shadow cabinet meeting where Milne's trying to get a photo op and Corbyn says its a bad idea.
The issue is, prior to the referendum, the labour looked more like a protest group than an actual opposition. But how much of that is down to Corbyn not having full control of the party. Largely due to the rebels.
If it comes to a leadership election Corbyn will stand. He will take most of membership in regards to the activists. The key questions is 1. Will the unions continue to support him. 2. Who do the Blairites rally around.
I think Corbyn will take most of the union vote too. I don't see a standout Blairite candidate. Instead it could be 2-3 of them competing which strengthens Corbyn.
Corbyn should therefore win any leadership contest. He then has to take more effective control of the PLP. If they won't back him this time after a second successful leadership election he has to push Cameron for a general election and deselect the disloyal mp's. But that then creates a labour party dominated by one section rather than a wider spectrum.
Could the Blairites form their own party? Possible.
For what its worth I disagree with a lot of Corbyns policies. I think his brand of socialism is unworkable and should be consigned to the past.
However the people deserve a genuine choice at the ballot box rather than the same choice wearing different coloured ties.
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29 Jun 2016 11:13:56
I think Franky they might try and get rid of Corbin by any means, just like they did with John Smith. The future is in everyone's hands and if we don't come together it could be a bleak future for the younger generation who have been brainwashed by their phones and tablets.
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29 Jun 2016 11:28:56
It would have to appear natural causes, stress related to have any chance. Any other way it would look like it is.
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29 Jun 2016 11:53:10
i think there will be only one challenger but like you said there is no stand out contenders,
funny enough the guy who went up against him last time would be the only one who could realistically put up a good fight (andy burnham )
especially after his stock rose over Hillsborough and also he was never the main culprits behind the coo, no doubt he disagrees with corbyn on certain policies, he in my eyes would have been his toughest opponent, but he got my respect by not resigning and kept out of it.
angela eagle is touted to be the challenger but judging by her own constituents she has no chance, they all publicly backed corbyn.
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29 Jun 2016 12:08:25
Burnham kept out of it because he needs union support for this metro mayor in Liverpool he's positioning himself for. He's figuring its better for him to not be the Blairite candidate for that. Burnham thinks of Burnham. He knows he has slim chance of the leadership and he knows how the coupists have been viewed.
I think we'll see a few sound out the rest of party but drop out for lack of support. The problem for this coup is they've acted without having a figurehead.
Tom Watson is playing the quiet game. Very Richard III waiting for power to be "thrust" upon him.
Eagle has zero chance. Burnham has discussed. Chuka Umunna may try, personally I don't rate him. I still think the best candidate on that side is Yvette Cooper but she's largely kept quiet.
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